Australia’s Indigenous Population Was Far Larger in 1788

Melbourne, September 16: More than two million Indigenous people may have been living across Australia when the British arrived in 1788, according to a new study that combines genetic, archaeological and environmental evidence.

The estimate is significantly higher than the long-standing figure of around 300,000 that has shaped historical understanding for much of the past century. Researchers say their analysis puts the median Indigenous population in 1788 at 2.22 million, with a possible range of roughly one million to four million people.

The study, published in Nature Human Behaviour, used methods that did not depend on colonial-era population counts. Researchers examined more than 5,000 archaeological radiocarbon dates, genetic data and estimates of how many people Australia's environments could have supported.

The earlier estimate, published by anthropologist Alfred Reginald Radcliffe-Brown in 1930, was largely based on observations made after Indigenous communities had already been affected by disease, violence and displacement. Australia did not have a comprehensive census of its Indigenous population until 1971, while earlier colonial records covered only sections of the population.

Researchers said the new findings also highlight the scale of population loss following the British invasion. By 1861, the Indigenous population was estimated at between 177,000 and 193,000.

Using demographic modelling, the researchers estimated around 2.06 million excess deaths between the invasion and the mid-19th century. However, they stressed that this is a modelled estimate rather than a precise death toll. The possible range of total deaths was estimated at around 700,000 to 4.2 million.

Disease was a major factor. A smallpox outbreak struck the Sydney region in 1789, less than two years after the First Fleet arrived. Other outbreaks, along with diseases such as measles, influenza and tuberculosis, also caused significant deaths.

The research also points to the impact of frontier violence, displacement, forced labour, food insecurity and other forms of disruption during colonial expansion. Researchers noted that historical records of such events remain incomplete.

A larger pre-invasion population also changes how scientists understand Indigenous land management. Millions of people living across the continent would have maintained extensive systems of cultural burning, resource management and environmental knowledge developed over thousands of years.

Despite the enormous demographic losses, researchers emphasised Indigenous survival and the continued transmission of culture, languages, kinship systems and knowledge.

The study's authors said the findings could contribute to discussions around historical understanding, reconciliation and Indigenous-led land management, while highlighting the importance of recognising both the scale of the losses and the resilience of Indigenous communities.