The Supreme Court has raised concerns over India's declining fertility rate, highlighting the long-term challenges the country could face as its population gradually ages. With fewer children being born and the proportion of elderly citizens increasing, the court has indicated that India may need to rethink population policies that were framed around concerns over rapid population growth.
The observation came on Wednesday, November 4, while a bench was hearing a case involving Mangala Bhimrao Ingle from Maharashtra. Her election as sarpanch of Kakoda Gram Panchayat was set aside because she allegedly had more than two children.
The court referred the matter to a larger bench for reconsideration of its 2003 judgment in the Javed versus State of Haryana case, which had upheld the validity of a two-child norm for contesting local body elections.
During the proceedings, the Supreme Court highlighted the significant decline in India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR). According to the figures cited by the court, India's TFR dropped from 3.02 in 2003 to 1.9 in 2024, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
What Does Falling Fertility Mean?
Total Fertility Rate measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. A rate of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level, meaning each generation broadly replaces itself, assuming other demographic factors remain unchanged.
India's declining fertility rate is linked to several factors, including increasing contraceptive use, improved education among women and changing family preferences.
India's Elderly Population Is Set To Increase
One of the biggest consequences of falling fertility, combined with longer life expectancy, is the growing proportion of elderly citizens.
According to projections from the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, India's population aged 60 and above is expected to increase from approximately 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036.
Their share of the total population is projected to rise from 8.4 per cent to 14.9 per cent during the same period. Meanwhile, the proportion of children below 15 years is expected to decline from 30.9 per cent to 20.1 per cent.
Will India's Demographic Advantage Decline?
For decades, India's young population has been considered a major economic advantage. A large working-age population can contribute to economic growth, productivity and consumption.
According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's Annual Report 2024-25, people aged 15-59 account for 64.2 per cent of India's population. Their share is projected to peak at around 65 per cent by 2036.
However, declining fertility and an ageing population could gradually put pressure on the workforce and increase the responsibility of supporting elderly dependents.
The challenge will be to generate productive employment, improve skills and encourage greater workforce participation, particularly among women.
The issue has also featured in discussions by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, who has advocated larger families. Speaking at an event in Nagpur in December 2024, he said the fertility rate should not fall below 2.1 and argued that families should ideally have at least three children.
The Supreme Court's observations have therefore brought renewed attention to India's changing demographic landscape and the need to prepare for the economic and social consequences of an ageing population.
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