New Delhi, October 12: Heavy rain and thunderstorms surprised residents of Delhi-NCR on Monday, even as the Southwest Monsoon is in its withdrawal phase. The unexpected downpour, which began on Sunday night, has raised questions about the changing weather patterns across northern India.
According to climate expert Professor Gufran Beig, Chair Professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and founder-director of SAFAR, the unusual rainfall is linked to a combination of atmospheric conditions and broader climate variations, including the developing El Niño phenomenon.
Beig described the current El Niño as an unusually strong event and warned that it could contribute to significant fluctuations in temperatures during the coming winter. He also pointed to irregular atmospheric circulation and an active Western Disturbance over northern India as key factors behind the sudden rainfall.
The interaction between relatively cold air associated with the Western Disturbance and warm, moisture-laden air over the Delhi-NCR region reportedly created conditions favourable for heavy showers and thunderstorms.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued weather alerts for several regions. It said atmospheric instability could bring rainfall, lightning, gusty winds and isolated hailstorms across Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab.
Over the previous 24 hours, very heavy rainfall of 12–20 cm was recorded in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, while heavy rainfall of 7–11 cm affected the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Haryana. Isolated hailstorms were also reported in Uttarakhand and western Uttar Pradesh.
For Delhi, temperatures are forecast to remain between 31°C and 35°C, with cloudy skies and intermittent light to moderate rain.
The IMD has also forecast further rainfall across parts of northern India between October 12 and 18. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon is expected to begin over the southern peninsula within the next two to three days, bringing additional rainfall to several southern states.
Although the developing El Niño may influence India's seasonal weather, experts caution that individual rain events depend on multiple atmospheric factors. The latest spell highlights the growing unpredictability of weather conditions during the seasonal transition.
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